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Post by me2 on Dec 16, 2008 4:51:39 GMT -5
Well I understood the second part of General Veers calculation. But the first part is also not understandable for me, because he does neither tell from where the number 6 or 7 are dropping in, or what this equation is 2p-6 is even based of. Well, I think: No you don't have to know what he is doing there. Because he is doing it unnecessarily complex. Instead of directly looking at the EXP, he is using this stupid rounded percentage value. Why??? General Veers, why don't you take from this table in the wiki the total amount of EXP required for the next level? Then you calculate the remaining EXP before you advance to the next level. And you can also simply count how much EXP you get at each run or even look it up for each enemy in the tables of the japanese wiki. And then you can calculate the number of runs, by doing a simple division: r = floor( (EXPlvl26 - EXPcur) / EXPgain_per_run )EXPlvl26 = 1000 * (26*(26-1))/2 = 325000 EXPcur = your current experience (displayed in the game) EXPgain_per_run = how much experience you gain per run (it's always the same if you kill the same enemies at a certain player level) And you get a really exact number of remaining runs (supposing you don't accidentially kill a varying number of enemies during your run to the boss). And finally: You didn't tell us why you are doing this at all? Do you suppose drop rates might be dependent on your player level? Well, it might be possible ... /me
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Post by General Veers on Dec 16, 2008 18:48:39 GMT -5
If You use sheet of paper only for countin runs <=10 then how in the world You knew, that Runs 13, 23, 29, 73, 90, and 97 provided the cards I only recorded the runs in which I received cards while I didn't bother to write down cardless runs. I used my equation to figure how many runs I made. Well I understood the second part of General Veers calculation. But the first part is also not understandable for me, because he does neither tell from where the number 6 or 7 are dropping in, or what this equation is 2p-6 is even based of. In my equation 2p-7 and 2p-6, the six and seven are to subtract from experience that I had before running. I already started out at 3%, which is equivalent to 6 runs at level 25. Apparently, if my run is when I am in the first half of my percentage, I have to subtract another one, making a value of -7. If I am in the second half of my percentage (i.e. I will change percentage on my run afterwards), then I keep the value as -6. r = floor( (EXPlvl26 - EXPcur) / EXPgain_per_run )EXPlvl26 = 1000 * (26*(26-1))/2 = 325000 EXPcur = your current experience (displayed in the game) EXPgain_per_run = how much experience you gain per run (it's always the same if you kill the same enemies at a certain player level) And you get a really exact number of remaining runs (supposing you don't accidentially kill a varying number of enemies during your run to the boss). I didn't think of that, although I'm always accidentally killing a few white stickmen frequently yet randomly. Now that I know, I'll keep that in mind for next time (at least for Castle Boss, where I can't possibly kill enemies accidentally...). Thank you. And finally: You didn't tell us why you are doing this at all? Do you suppose drop rates might be dependent on your player level? Well, it might be possible ... I was doing this because the sub-Castle Boss and the Castle Boss are the only enemies that give me more than one EXP at level 25, I wanted to level, and I figured I might as well find out a good drop rate for the Critical's Card, which some might consider really nice to have...
And a question in topic. Don't you think that those counts should give some simple number, thats more-less predictable? Like searching Criticals Card.. I have found 2 of them in 50 runs, You have found 1 in 25 runs. For me it was kinda clear that all in all it's 5% chance because it's closest nice, 'round', number. When You did another 100 runs with 6 Cards i have only noded because it confirmed my expectations, and now i am sure that's exactly 5%. Any further counts only will get us closer to conviction that it really is 5%. If You want to be completely sure, you would have to see game code or make some like 10000 runs or more. I completed runs 101-200, finally. During that interval, I received ten Critical's Cards, bringing the total up to 16 cards in 200 runs, or 8% chance per run. I died one time throughout the 200 runs: my 70LP Sniper during the 189th run.The most number of consecutive runs without getting a card was 43 (73, which would have been the 44 th consecutive cardless run, gave me a card). The least was zero (run 143 gave me a card after run 142 gave me a card). These were the runs in which I received a Critical's Card for all 200 runs: - 13
- 23
- 29
- 73
- 90
- 97
- 108
- 115
- 130
- 137
- 139
- 142
- 143
- 174
- 188
- 198
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Post by kierovnick on Dec 17, 2008 6:07:30 GMT -5
Let me take this straight..
Instead of counting runs in a way 1,2,3,4,5,6,.... you apply the equation to exp. verytime you get a card just to know what run was it? And what's more.. you sometimes kill some random dude accidentaly making all the equations less probable.
Well.. i will stay with old fasioned counting runs on a plain sheet of parer.
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Post by General Veers on Dec 17, 2008 17:39:27 GMT -5
I will likely start using /me's experience formula for Castle Boss.
The random people I kill are so low in experience (1 EXP) that it doesn't affect my equation too much. Yes, my equation became less and less useful everytime I killed more than the enemies found at the BOSS level, but it did not alter my values. I indeed ran 200 times.
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Post by sounnikoura on Dec 20, 2008 9:29:43 GMT -5
I promised 200 runs but I got hooked to Metin2 and stopped them halfway. Damn.
1: Money 2: Vampire's Card 3: Nothing 4: Vampire's Card 5: Item Onigiri, Money and Vampire's card 6: Nothing 7: Nothing 8: Money 9: Nothing 10: Nothing 11: Money and Item Onigiri 12: Vampire's Card 13: Vampire's Card 14: Vampire's Card 15: Nothing 16: Item Onigiri 17: Nothing 18: Money 19: Nothing 20: Nothing 21: Vampire's Card 22: Vampire's Card 23: Nothing 24: Vampire's Card 25: Onigiri Item 26: Vampire's Card 27: Money 28: Vampire's Card 29: Nothing 30: Nothing 31: Item onigiri 32: Money, Vampire's Card 33: Nothing 34: Nothing 35: Onigiri's Card 36: Nothing 37: Nothing 38: Nothing 39: Vampire's Card 40: Onigiri's Card and Vampire's Card 41: Money, Item Onigiri and Vampire's Card 42: Money and Vampire's Card 43: Nothing 44: Vampire's Card 45: Money 46: Nothing 47: Nothing 48: Nothing 49: Money 50: Nothing 51: Nothing 52: Vampire's Card 53: Money 54: Money 55: Vampire's Card 56: Item Onigiri and Vampire's Card 57: Vampire's Card 58: Vampire's Card 59: Nothing 60: Nothing 61: Nothing 62: Money and Vampire's Card 63: Item Onigiri and Vampire's Card 64: Item Onigiri, Money 65: Nothing 66: Vampire's Card 67: Item Onigiri 68: Onigiri's Card 69: Vampire's Card, Money 70: Nothing 71: Vampire's Card 72: Money, Vampire's Card 73: Onigiri's Card 74: Vampire's Card 75: Nothing 76: Nothing 77: Money 78: Vampire's Card 79: Money, Vampire's Card 80: Money 81: Money, Vampire's Card 82: Nothing 83: Item Onigiri 84: Nothing 85: Vampire's Card 86: Item Onigiri 87: Nothing 88: Vampire's Card 89: Nothing 90: Nothing 91: Onigiri's Card 92: Onigiri's Card, Vampire's Card 93: Item Onigiri, Money 94: Nothing 95: Money 96: Nothing 97: Vampire's Card 98: Item Onigiri 99: Nothing 100:Nothing
23% Money 36% Vampire’s Card 14% Onigiri item 6% Onigiri’s card Now that he can drop nothing at all the drop rates are much tinier.
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Post by ~Memzak~ on Dec 23, 2008 6:45:58 GMT -5
wow, thats alot of runs, could you sort them out into the percentages and statistics, when you're done of course..
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Post by General Veers on Dec 26, 2008 6:01:34 GMT -5
I promised 200 runs but I got hooked to Metin2 and stopped them halfway. Damn. *List of 100 runs here*23% Money 36% Vampire’s Card 14% Onigiri item 6% Onigiri’s card Now that he can drop nothing at all the drop rates are much tinier. Thank you.
I decided I will analyze the info in a different way just for the heck of it. The following analysis is not necessary. With disregard to other drops (i.e. a run with a card may or may not also include money or onigiri items...)40% Vampire's Card OR Onigiri's Card --2% Vampire's Card AND Onigiri's Card --38% Vampire's Card XOR Onigiri's Card
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Post by ~Memzak~ on Dec 26, 2008 8:35:07 GMT -5
Thanks GV..
so , your saying that, if I do 50 runs I'll at least get vampire and onigiri's card together once?
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Post by kierovnick on Dec 26, 2008 18:48:23 GMT -5
Well.. if you take probablility as something it's not, than yes.. you will get double cards every 50th run. The truth is you can run 200 times never having such luck, but in the other hand you can do 2 runs and get double card drop in both. This is the magic of probablility. You just never know.. So if you will have luck and get double drop in first run you'll have 100% rate! But the more runs you'll make, the bigger probablity is that you will reach that 2% double drops rate.
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Post by ~Memzak~ on Dec 27, 2008 6:30:03 GMT -5
Oh, then I'll need to be really lucky or play for ever to get it right?
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